The Academy Awards may be a lot of things, but they are not always as predictable as they seem. In the annual race to determine Hollywood’s finest, the biggest story often lies in those left off the list, or in the surprising dark horse Oscar win.
Leading up to tonight’s big telecast, here are two final lists of five; five possible upsets, and five Oscar snubs that still sting.
Your Oscar Final Five: Possible Upsets
Hugo for Best Picture
Sure, with 11 nominations, Hugo might be heading into Oscar night as the perceived frontrunner, but award precursors have shown this is far from the case. The Artist has swept almost every big Best Picture win, including the prognosticative Directors and Producers Guild of America Awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and even last night’s Independent Spirit Awards. With The Artist as the perceived Academy favourite, a Hugo win would seem almost completely out of left field. In spite of its Martin Scorsese pedigree, Hugo is a superbly visual piece of moviemaking, and not much more.
Martin Scorsese for Best Director
After giving Scorsese the Oscar cold shoulder for years, the Academy might repent by letting him walk away with his second golden statuette.
Bérénice Bejo, for Best Supporting Actress in The Artist
Octavia Spencer has won the majority of the other Best Supporting Actress awards, but this category is wide open, with lots of room for movement. Depending on how warmly the Academy takes to The Artist, the charming Bejo could leave a winner.
Midnight in Paris for Best Picture
After making a splash at Cannes, Midnight in Paris became Woody Allen’s top-grossing, and perhaps most crowd-pleasing, film of all time. This sleeper hit has been racking up the buzz, and if The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants wind up splitting the vote, however unlikely, Woody might come out on top.
Jean Dujardin, for Best Actor in The Artist
According to our predictions, Dujardin will be tonight’s Best Actor winner; but to popular consensus, he is still the dark horse to Clooney and Pitt. After charming up a storm, Dujardin remains our pick to win.
Your Oscar Final Five: Snubs that still sting
Margin Call for Best Picture
Talk about topical. Margin Call, a film about an inside look at the market crash, was criminally overlooked this awards season. Driven by a superb script, it boasted the best ensemble cast performance of the year, even from relative unknowns Zachary Quinto and Penn Badgley.
Albert Brooks, in Drive
Brooks played against-type as a Hollywood producer-turned-mobster in the ultra-violent Drive. The otherwise affable Brooks embodied Bernie Rose’s cold-hearted villainy, in a transformative performance worthy of Oscar gold.
Charlize Theron, in Young Adult
Jason Reitman has a skill for ushering his actresses down the Oscar red carpet, having previously done so with Ellen Page in Juno, and Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air. Yet, Theron’s understated performance in Young Adult, the best of her career, went unnoticed by the Academy. Our favourite scene? When her high school sweetheart’s now-wife performs the “song” of their former union at a smalltown rock concert.
Michael Fassbender, in Shame
Fassbender’s performance in the NC-17 film received universal acclaim and penis envy from George Clooney. But sadly, this explosive take on sex addiction was too risqué for Oscar.
Will Reiser, writer of 50/50
50/50 may seem like a tough sell; a comedy about cancer, based on a true story. However, Reiser’s script was more than just heartwarming – it was also inventive, smart, and full of pitch-perfect comic timing.
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This is the final article in our Toronto Standard Oscar Crash Course series.
Toronto Standard’s Oscar predictions
Why TIFF (and Toronto) deserve the most Oscar bragging rights
Uncover how producer and Hollywood kingmaker, Harvey Weinstein turned The Artist, a silent, black-and-white movie into an Oscar frontrunner
Joanna Adams is a reporter for Toronto Standard. She obsesses about the Academy Awards year-round, and her favourite Oscar host is David Letterman.
Join the Toronto Standard on Sunday as Joanna Adams, Jessica Carroll, and Scott MacDonald live blog the Academy Awards. Or, watch alongside them at 7 p.m. on CTV, or ABC.
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