Recent polls suggest Hudak is guarding a narrowing lead over the McGuinty Liberals. This led to Prime Minister Stephen Harper openly musing at Mayor Rob Ford’s BBQ about a Tory “hat trick” at City Hall, Queen’s Park and Ottawa. Which ridings might swing? We can glean some hints from the last federal election. As with today’s provincial map, the majority of federal seats in Toronto belonged to the Liberals until the spring election. The city was theirs to lose, and they did-15 previously Liberal ridings went to the NDP or Conservatives. The before/after picture isn’t pretty for the party: Today, the Ontario Liberals have a hold on the city, like the one the federal party used to. On October 6, Toronto will vote again. With the Liberals’ federal fiasco in mind, here are the ridings to watch: Eglinton-Lawrence This riding gave the Tories their breakthrough in the 416 in the federal election, with Joe Oliver unseating long-time Liberal MP Joe Volpe. Former mayoral candidate Rocco Rossi is the PC nominee in the riding, running against Mike Colle (the father of rookie city councillor Josh Colle), who won re-election in 2007 by a pretty narrow margin. Davenport Liberal MP Tony Ruprecht has announced he’s not running for re-election, and the party has yet to nominate a candidate to replace him. The NDP are hoping for a repeat performance in the riding, where their candidate, indie rocker Andrew Cash, ousted long-time MP Mario Silva in the federal election. The NDP nominated Jonah Schein, a community organizer at The Stop Community Food Centre, and a candidate for council in the last municipal election. Former Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong is also running for the Greens. Etobicoke-Lakeshore The Tories proved they have an excellent ground-game in this riding-just ask Michael Ignatieff, who used to hold the seat while not leading a certain party to victory. The Tories nominated Simon Nyilassy, the CEO of one of the country’s top real estate trusts. We’ll see if Nyilassy can give Liberal cabinet minister Laurel Broten a challenge. Scarborough-Agincourt Incumbent Liberal MPP Gerry Phillips won’t be running again. The Liberals have nominated school board trustee Soo Wong in his place. NDP candidate Nancy Patchell ran and lost against Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis in May. The Progressive Conservative nominee is Lieng Chen. The Scarboroughs In the federal election, the Liberals collapsed in Scarborough, losing three Scarborough ridings-Scarborough Centre to the Tories, Scarborough-Rouge River and Scarborough Southwest to the NDP. The Ontario Liberals who hold these seats now have high profiles in caucus and won their ridings handily in the last election. If Energy Minister Brad Duguid, Bas Balkissoon and Lorenzo Berardinetti (husband of the newly-elected Councillor Michelle Berardinetti) are ousted, it would be a surprise. Trinity-Spadina The Liberals aren’t on their heels in every riding. Former Toronto mayoral candidate and Sarah Thomson is gunning for NDP MPP Rosario Marchese’s seat. While Thomson has some name recognition, she’s running in the riding that’s represented federally by Olivia Chow and municipally by her step-son, Mike Layton. Willowdale The Conservatives unseated former Liberal leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay in the federal election. However, their provincial candidate this time around is a rookie: Vince Agovino takes on veteran Liberal MP David Zimmer. York Centre The Tories could benefit from the organization and outreach that helped Mark Adler beat Liberal star Ken Dryden in May. Long-time Liberal MPP Monte Kwinter will be facing Conservative challenger Michael Mostyn, a former national director of B’nai Brith Canada. Mostyn previously ran for the federal Conservatives. York South-Weston This will be the third election in which Liberal Laura Albanese and New Democrat Paul Ferriera face off. In the first round, a by-election, Ferreira won. In the 2007 rematch, Albanese took the seat by a margin of less than two percentage points. Now that the NDP took the seat in the last federal election, this looks like it will be quite a rematch.It’s two months until the provincial election. Do you know where your swing ridings are? The provincial campaign has largely kept a low profle this summer, but a tightening race suggests a raucus campaign is just around the corner.