The Leafs are in an interesting position between the pipes: the goalie that everyone thought should be winning isn’t, but the other guy is. Unfortunately that fact doesn’t make him the better player of the two. Between Gustavsson, Reimer and Scrivens, Toronto has managed to accrue 22 wins this season, respectively 13-7-2. Gustavsson is the one winning most often (supporting the Leafs with 4 straight wins, including 2 shutouts, before losing 3-2 to Buffalo on Friday night), but is he better than the other two? Not really.
Jonas Gustavsson:13-8-0, 2.91 GAA, .908 SV%, 2 SHO
When Gustavsson joined the Maple Leafs in 2009, he was a much praised prospect that Toronto was excited to sign. A backup for Toskala, “The Monster” joined the Leafs after a stellar year for Farjestad of the Swedish Elite League, where he posted a GAA of 1.96 and a .932 save percentage. In his first season with the Leafs he played 42 games, going 16-15-9 with a 2.87 GAA and .902 SV% with 1 shutout. Comparing these numbers to this year’s, he’s playing approximately as well as he did three years ago, but is posting nearly as many wins in just 22 games played, 19 of which he started.
One of the issues with his record is the fact that the Leafs’ offense is playing much better than it was in his first season. So far this year the Leafs have scored 3.41 goals per game in those that Gustavsson has played, exactly .5 goals more per game than he allows. Compare that to the Leafs of 2009-10 who supported Gustavsson with only 2.67 goals per game. The improved record has little to do with Jonas himself and more with the supporting cast.
James Reimer: 7-4-4, 3.01 GAA, .900 SV%, 1 SHO
After going 20-10-5 last year reviving the Leafs Nation’s hopes for winning the cup, Reimer has dealt with a concussion and underperformed so far in this 2011-12 season. In 2010-11, Reimer recorded 20 wins in 37 games with a goals against average of 2.60 and a .921 save percentage. That was good enough to tie him for 10th in the league in SV% and 24th in GAA (this year no Leaf goalie is ranked higher than 29th in either category). I can say without hesitation that this season has been a disappointment.
When looking at the offensive support Reimer has received the past two seasons, the Leafs have managed, surprisingly, to score exactly 3 goals per game both this year and last. Allowing .4 goals per game less than the opposing team last season resulted in a much better record than this year’s .01 goal differential. While posting a winning percentage of 54% in 2010-11, Reimer has only won 41% of games played this year. Reimer is posting almost the same numbers as Gustavsson this season, but is not getting the goal support to win games. As a result, Gustavsson unfairly looks like the better goaltender.
Ben Scrivens: 2-4-1, 2.96 GAA, .904 SV%, 0 SHO
So how about Scrivens? The third string goalie has played in 8 games this year due to injuries and has posted similar numbers to both Gustavsson and Reimer. Regardless, he seems to be no better or worse than either of the Leafs’ other two goalies but still doesn’t have their edge (however intangible). Accordingly, he will only be used in emergency situations.
The Leafs have a goal-tending issue. For the moment, Gustavsson seems to be winning games, but if the Leafs’ scoring drops off, he will start losing and Toronto will gradually fall out of the playoffs. It is placing a lot of pressure on the Leafs’ offense to ask them to maintain their 3.41 goals per game pace when Jonas is in net. Only the Bruins have been able to muster that many goals per game over the course of the entire season, averaging 3.7 goals in each contest. The Leafs themselves have recorded only 3.18 goals per game through the 43 games played so far this season, and if regression towards the mean has taught us anything, Gustavsson should expect to get less support in games down the road. I mean, fingers crossed the Leafs keep scoring, but I, like many Toronto fans, have grown to expect disappointment.
Luckily the Leafs still have Reimer. Admittedly he started slow, but there’s nothing that says he can’t bounce back to last year’s form. If this were to happen, and the Leafs can maintain the same scoring pace they are currently on, he would be the go-to guy down. I still think Toronto will make the playoffs this year, regardless of the lack of a true #1 goalie, but I don’t think Gustavsson will be the one to do it. If Toronto wants to compete this year, Reimer is going to have to turn his season around, and I’m hoping he’ll be able to do it.
In Other News:
For the first couple weeks of the season, the Raptors hung around the .500 mark and I was torn between being excited about their mediocre start and cursing them for falling further back in the draft. Then something clicked and they returned to form, losing three in a row, two times to teams that have half as many wins as losses. Following two depressing losses to the Wizards and the Kings, the Raptors managed to keep the game close against the 8-3 Indiana Pacers, even leading for the entire first half. Apparently they forgot about the second half though and were outscored 55-45 after the break and lost by 5. They are now 4-8 and tied for 7th last in the league.
And for those lacrosse fans out there, the NLL got going last week with the Toronto Rock losing their season opener to the Calgary Roughnecks. The Rock will be looking to defend their title this year and surpass Philadelphia for most championships in the history of the league after tying the Wings with their 6th Champion’s Cup title last year. Toronto plays the Bandits in Buffalo on Saturday.
Nick McIsaac is Toronto Standard‘s sports writer. Follow him on Twitter at @nickclass.
