Hollywood’s weekend box office take is what drives the entertainment news cycle. Like Eli Wallach’s character says in The Holiday, “box office results [are] reported like baseball scores on the nightly news.” Each domestic opening weekend winner (or loser) is reported matter-of-factly, as reporters rattle off a list of budgetary achievements, ho-hum disappointments and surprises – yet few know what these numbers represent.
Box office reporting, and entertainment news, has become an endless hype machine of numbers and expectations, with predictions and analyses starting, and ending, mid-week. Theatre receipts are gathered from exhibitors across North America to tabulate domestic box office totals.
But why $100-Million?
For Phil Contrino, editor of BoxOffice.com and Hollywood Box Office analyst, this number is emblematic of cultural phenomena.
“$100-Million is the number which is being thrown around right now, because it really is phenomenal,” said Contrino. “For any film to post those kind of numbers shows a lot of franchise strength and financial promise. If people are interested in seeing something, they will be interested in seeing something that will come out anytime, year round.”
According to Scott Feinberg, a writer at The Hollywood Reporter and all-around movie expert, this box office buildup dates back to Jaws, the first blockbuster, in 1975.
“The truth is, the difference between $100-Million and $90-Million in the grand scheme of things isn’t that much, but, $100-Million just gets people excited,” said Feinberg. “You know, it doesn’t equate to quality, it doesn’t really mean anything. If you look at the top grossing movies of all time, very few of them are especially well-received by critics, or even stand the test of time. I mean, how many people go back and watch the Spiderman sequels? Not many. But, Hollywood [has] really perfected the hype machine.”
After Jaws’ release, it became increasingly important for movie studios and theatre exhibitors to have a boffo opening weekend. By filling as many seats – and screens – as possible to maximize the movie’s gross potential, this ideally gave both interested parties a fuller house. Movie studios, now owned by conglomerates, answer to shareholders, and posting a profit through their feature films is a necessity, for both business, and longevity.
For all the hype, $100-Million is the magic number for opening weekend grosses. Becoming the weekend’s box office winner, especially with that enormous, rarely-achieved number, drives a movie in and out of the pop culture conversation.
“The bottom line is that, we as members of the public fixate on stats,” said Feinberg. “We love top 100 lists, we love any kind of list or any kind of number that is a round number, so $100-Million gets people buzzing. For the movie studios, their ultimate goal is to make their movie an event movie, meaning the public feels that they’re missing out if they haven’t seen [it]. It’s almost like peer pressure, ‘oh you didn’t see it? How could you of missed it!” so it’s not any one factor other than that [branding and expansion] that drives people to the movies. “
The latest event movie is The Hunger Games.
On Monday, hundreds of screaming teenyboppers lined up at the corner of Queen and John Streets to catch a glimpse of the male Hunger Games at MuchMusic before their Canadian premiere. A day later, the movie became Fandango’s highest-selling movie for advanced tickets, beating out all other non-sequels.
The Hunger Games is poised to shatter box office records for a franchise-starter, bursting the $100-Million bubble.
The male stars of The Hunger Games at MuchMusic. Left to right: Alexander Ludwig, Josh Hutcherson and Liam Hemsworth. Image: PopsugarRead More: The Hunger Games Outsells Any Non-Sequel in Advanced Ticket Sales
For Contrino, the ubiquity of Hollywood box office reporting is an essential means of “validation” for movie studios to draw audiences.
“When you see a movie, and you really like it, you want to hear that it’s successful, or that it’s going to be successful,” said Contrino. “I think that’s why a lot of people follow it, and why it drives the news. If a movie opens at $100-Million domestically, you know, it’s six degrees of separation; chances are you’re not far away from someone who has seen the movie and is telling you to go see it in your social circle.“
But, the media cannot always create a hit for the studio through promotion and speculation. In the case of John Carter, a $250-Million box office bomb which has lost Disney an estimated $200-Million, the audience, and critics, were able to sniff out a flop.
Read More: John Carter: Dead on Arrival
“A movie like John Carter, that’s probably the worst possible title you could have for a movie,” said Feinberg. “[There’s] a guy on the billboard who many people don’t know, even though he’s a nice looking guy, and it sends a very confusing message. You know, is it a Disney movie in the sense of a Little Mermaid Disney movie, or is it like a Pirates Disney movie, and who is this guy playing John Carter? It was a perfect storm of things that could have gone wrong, even if the movie was good.”
Once a movie is released, entertainment news continues to follow Hollywood’s successes and failures, though its influence is minimized. The public’s desire to see a movie like The Hunger Games is reinforced by box office reporting, and increases brand awareness. But, there’s no denying the strength the media carries in prognosticating a movie’s triumph.
“[The audience] wants to know that their opinion is shared by others, and what they think is good and interesting is also successful,” said Contrino. “That means a lot to them to know that, and I think they get upset when something they’ve enjoyed doesn’t catch on as well as they’ve hoped.”
At Boxoffice.com, Phil Contrino predicts The Hunger Games will break $115-Million this weekend; a number that shatters Spider-man‘s 2002 record.
If The Hunger Games does indeed rake in over $115-Million, or $140-Million, as The Hollywood Reporter is saying, it would put it up there with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part Two, The Dark Knight and all of the Twilight sequels, save for Eclipse – making it one of the top-five biggest opening weekends of all time.
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Joanna Adams writes the Morning Cable, and lots more, for Toronto Standard. Follow her on Twitter at †@nowstarringTO.
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