The Topsy-Turvy American League East

Nick McIsaac: “The strongest division in baseball is proving to be that yet again in 2012, but the order within the ranks is far from expected”

Heading into Monday’s slate of games, the American League East standings are a bizarre sight. The Baltimore Orioles currently boast the best record in baseball, passing Washington Sunday night after their 9-3 loss to Philadelphia, and as a result sit atop the AL East division at 19-9. The Jays, by comparison, sit in 3^rd, behind the 19-10 Rays, with a record of 16-13. At the bottom of the heap are the Yankees (15-13) and the lowly Red Sox (11-16), who have, and I say this with pleasure, underachieved so far this season. The strongest division in baseball is proving to be exactly that, yet again, in 2012, but the order within the ranks is far from expected.

When the 2012 MLB season began I thought I had a general idea of how the AL East would shape up. The Rays would likely win the division with their deep pitching rotation and solid hitting, and the Yankees would place a close second, based on their ability to score runs through the entire batting order. The Jays, I hoped, would end up in 3^rd, fighting for that new additional Wild Card spot, most likely with the Angels or the Indians; the Red Sox and the Orioles would be left out in the cold. Unfortunately it is the team I least expected to win the division that is currently sitting on top, and they have beaten the Jays in five of their six matchups.

This year the Baltimore Orioles have surprised pretty much everyone. After starting the season ranked 28^th in ESPN’s Power Rankings, third worst in the league, they have rocketed to 5^th in this week’s rankings. While their offense has improved (they have scored 4.68 runs/game as opposed to 4.37 in 2011), they are still achieving below average run support for an AL East team, the highest scoring division in baseball. It is really on the other side of the field where the Orioles’ numbers have changed drastically and put them in their current position.

After allowing 5.31 runs/game in 2011 (worst in the league), the Orioles have done a complete 180 for the 2012 season. Their 3.46 runs/game allowed this year is the third best in the majors and a good reason why Baltimore is winning games. Led by 29-year old Jason Hammel, whom the Orioles received last year along with Matt Lindstrom for starter Jeremy Guthrie, the Baltimore pitching staff boasts the lowest ERA in the American League at 2.38. Not only that, but if you look at the pitching VORP for the entire league, they sit in 3^rd, behind only the Nationals and the Rangers:

Top 5 Pitching VORPs in MLB:

1. Washington 43.0
2. Texas 37.8
3. Baltimore 36.6
4. Detroit 31.2
5. New York (AL) 30.4

It isn’t difficult to recognize that a high pitching VORP is translating into wins for most of these teams.

So the Orioles’ pitching has been good this year, a lot better than last year, and apparently a lot better than the Jays. Examining the VORP for just the American League East you get the following pecking order:

Pitching VORP in AL East:

1. Baltimore 36.6
2. New York 30.4
3. Tampa Bay 21.9
4. Boston 4.0
5. Toronto -3.1

Looking at this ranking, I have a sinking feeling in my gut that the Jays may actually be playing worse than their record suggests. Their pitching has not been that great, according to traditional statistics (a 3.76 combined ERA puts them right around average for the league), but a negative pitching VORP is a scary sight. In terms of runs allowed (seen below), the Jays are pitching at relatively the same level as the Rays and the Yankees, with the Red Sox and the Orioles remaining the outliers.

Total Runs Allowed (AL East):

1. Baltimore 97
2. Toronto 118
3. Tampa Bay 121
4. New York 129
5. Boston 156

So why are the standings the way they are?

Before I delve any further it should be noted that the difference in runs scored across the AL East is minimal. Boston has the most runs scored (144), while Baltimore has the least (131). What seems to be the determining factor right now in the high scoring American League East is pitching, a reason why from the start of the 2012 season I thought the Jays would finish ahead of Boston and why Baltimore (gulp) would finish last. I had little faith in either Boston’s pitching rotation or bullpen, especially once Bailey hit the DL, and. A month into the regular season the Red Sox’ pitchers are living up to my expectations.

Boston pitchers currently have a combined ERA of 5.36 (that is awful). Their starters have registered a 5.88 ERA (remove Cook’s one start that allowed six earned runs in 2.2 innings and it drops to 5.65) while relievers are doing slightly better at 4.53. For a team with a payroll of over $146 million, of which 25 per cent is spent on pitching ($36.5M), this seems like a lot of money for little return. However, as much as I like to think that the Red Sox are spending a bundle on terrible pitchers, there is one statistic that may show a light at the end of the tunnel for Boston fans and project doom and gloom for Jays’ fans: BABIP.

BABIP, if you are unfamiliar with the statistic, is a way to judge how many balls being connected with are actually going for hits, excluding home runs. Toronto currently has a BABIP of .253, the lowest in the league, while Baltimore is sitting in 6^th with .267. The Yankees and the Red Sox, in comparison, currently hold BABIPs of .320 and .308 respectively (27^th and 23^rd in the league). Tampa Bay is sitting right around average with a BABIP of .289, 16^th in the majors. What this means is that batters facing Jays’ pitchers are not balls for hits, a number also reflected in Toronto’s league leading defensive efficiency rating of .748. Unfortunately, maintaining these numbers over the course of a season are difficult, on either ends of the spectrum, and what we could see is a regression towards the norm for the Jays.

When you look at the fact that Toronto has allowed 40 home runs, tied with the Twins for worst in the league, BABIP plays a major role in determining how good the pitching really is. The Red Sox have allowed 38 home runs themselves, not a good sign, but one would think that their high BABIP will eventually lower and Boston will start getting more outs from balls in play; accordingly, their league-leading 5.78 runs allowed/game may drop as a result. More importantly, the Jays’ BABIP will likely increase, leading to more runs allowed per game. Not only that, but the Yankees are only a half game behind Toronto and judging from their horrendous BABIP but extremely high pitching VORP, they should turn a corner at some point and begin winning more games.

The AL East may not look the way it does now come the end of the season, but chances are there could be a shakeup in power this season. I still think Tampa Bay is the best team in the division, followed by the Yankees, but are the Orioles for real?  I can definitely see some regression, but there is the possibility that Baltimore may end up in front of the Jays come October. I thought the Angels were Toronto’s main competition for the second Wild Card spot, but it looks as if the Jays may have to duke it out with an unexpected challenger from within their own division.

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Nick McIsaac is Toronto Standard’s sports writer. Follow him on Twitter (for everything sports related) at @nickclass.

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